The latest economic update reveals a bifurcated landscape with steady 2.6% annual inflation. While industrial demand remains robust - indicated by the Logistics Managers Index reaching a one-year high - the labor market faces headwinds after shedding 92,000 jobs in February. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East threaten to push oil above $100 per barrel , while the commercial real estate sector increasingly relies on loan extensions to manage office assets that have seen values drop by an average of 56%.

The economy is moderating but steady, with slower GDP growth, 2.4% inflation, and a data-dependent Fed. Consumer sentiment is improving and AI investment is driving growth. In commercial real estate, industrial leads, apartments are stabilizing, retail is steady, and office performance remains split between suburban and CBD, amid ongoing housing affordability and policy debates.

Stronger job growth and improving logistics signal resilience, while flat retail sales and fewer job openings point to caution. In commercial real estate, office delinquencies hit a record high as industrial and lodging improve, with migration and foreclosure trends shaping the 2026 outlook.