Economic Update: Slowing Growth, Cooling Inflation, & Mixed Signals Across CRE

SVN’s latest economic update Economic Update points to a moderating but steady U.S. economy. Q4 GDP slowed to 1.4%, largely due to the government shutdown, while consumer spending cooled and AI-driven investment provided support. Inflation eased to 2.4% year-over-year, and the Fed signaled a neutral, data-dependent stance.

Consumer sentiment improved modestly, with inflation expectations declining. New home sales remained stable, though inventory levels are still elevated. Broader housing policy discussions — including potential limits on institutional homebuying — added another layer of uncertainty to the outlook.

In commercial real estate, trends remain mixed. Industrial continues to outperform, apartments are regaining momentum, retail has shown resilience, and office performance is split between suburban and CBD assets. Rent collections are stabilizing, and investor sentiment has improved slightly despite ongoing distress expectations in some sectors.